China, South Korea Are 'Superman' Box Office Kryptonite On 1st Weekend

Superman is flying high around the world, including nearly $125 million domestic, but China and South Korea seem to be box office Kryptonite for writer-director and DC Studios co-CEO James Gunn’s reboot of the DC superhero.

Superman By The Numbers

Superman is expected to earn a $7 million in its debut weekend in the Middle Kingdom. In comparison, Man of Steel grossed $6 million in its opening in China and finished at $63 million from the territory. In today’s dollars, that would be an $8 million opening, so about 14% higher than Superman.

South Korea, meanwhile, is looks likely to finish at just half of Man of Steel’s near-$9 million first weekend. Many factors are at play, and there was expected to be a slump in certain Asian markets, but that doesn’t make it feel any better to see it actually come to fruition and at such low levels.

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International box office overall looks unlikely to top $100 million after all, with Superman falling to second place in several European markets as Jurassic World: Rebirth defies its own “meh” B grade from audiences via Cinemascore to land a solid second weekend hold and easily retain its summer movie season frontrunner status. We’ll see if Fantastic Four: First Steps can excite audiences enough for a blockbuster opening that puts it in the running for Rebirth’s summer crown expectations.

No Doomsday For Superman

While its coming in at the lower end of my own expectations domestically (but ahead of most other pundits who started to low-ball heading into the weekend), this isn’t remotely doomsday for Superman, as even with those weak performances in China and South Korea the film is still the biggest movie in the world this weekend and will reach $220 million in global receipts.

If Superman manages even a tepid 2.5x final multiplier, which its A- Cinemascore should make easy enough, then it should have no trouble delivering at least about $550 million, and that’s almost surely a “worst-case” at this point. Much more likely at this point is something north of $600 million.

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That’s a big win for DC Studios and WBD, who plan to build their sprawling DCU (DC Cinematic Universe) upon the strong shoulders of Gunn’s and actor David Corenswet’s Superman. Corenswet is signed for a sequel or follow-up, he says, and we know Gunn is currently working on a secret script for another DCU film, so perhaps Superman’s successful launch will soon lead to announcements of what’s up next for the hero.

The film had (and still has, depending on continued international rollout) decent chances of a breakout performance toward $700-800 million, while at the other extreme DC’s plans were likely to change if Superman tracked closer to disappointing DCEU releases’ numbers.

But the first and biggest litmus test was whether audiences were willing to show up for a Superman movie and a DC movie again, especially up against major blockbuster competition like Jurassic World sequels, and whether that number was enough to point the way toward a future better than the DCEU offered.

That test was passed, and sets the stage for Supergirl, which is in production now and releases June 26th of next year. Now all that remains is to see whether the interest holds and builds enough to sustain it to a strong hold on second weekend and then a solid performance when Fantastic Four: First Steps blasts off on July 25th.

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Superman Has Super-Merch

As a side but extremely important note, with the box office itself safely in “full steam ahead” territory, consider that merchandising should be rock steady as well and deliver an even bigger boon for DC and WBD. Krypto toys and Superman-related costumes are going to be big sellers for kids this year, among the rest of the toys and clothing and memorabilia Superman will sell.

Which is one other reason even a $500-550 million final total for Superman would be acceptable and a sold enough foundation to build a DC future upon. Of course, everyone and especially WBD leadership would much prefer to see something north of $600 million, in shooting distance of Man of Steel’s debut, but that was with far less baggage to carry and with far less expansive plans for the rest of DC’s stable of characters.

Some fans will see the declining predictions and lower estimates, which undercut hopes of a higher tier performance right out the gate for Superman and the DCU. But with so much on the line and so many obstacles in its path, the fact DC Studios got Superman made and released so relatively quickly, with more films already in the pipeline and headed our way, this successful opening weekend was far from guaranteed.

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So grossing within the higher end of most expectations (and within my own general range of what I felt was likely and would signal success) is reason to celebrate, even if there remain reasons to be cautious about exactly how high Superman can climb. Critical and audience acclaim plus successful debut and thumbs-up for DCU’s plans should be taken as a win, and I hope fans can keep that in mind even while having valid conversations about any regrets or points regarding some of the less stellar bits of news.

If somehow a series of outcomes combine to suppress Superman’s final box office – big drops despite positive word of mouth, low openings in new markets off word of lower international turnout (relatively) so far, worsening weather and economic situations, or other converging unforeseen events – there is some slim chance perhaps of it meeting a similar fate to Thunderbolts* relative to early signs and expectations, but even this would be more in the high-$400 million to low-$500 million range.

Which would mean Supergirl still comes out as planned, Peacemaker season 2 still comes out as planned, Lanterns still comes out as planned, the in-production DCU projects far enough along still proceed as planned, but other projects may change or be shelved, and the in-production stuff might get some tweaks to attempt a wider international appeal.

Luckily, Superman has already reached a cruising altitude that makes it highly improbable the film will fail to top the minimum $500 million threshold to top the DCEU’s lean years, and much more likely is a $600-700+ million final cume. For the DCU, that means things are definitely looking up.