Gold prices fall by Rs 4,600/10 gms from peak, open lower at Rs 96,527/10 gms. Analysts predict damp sentiment ahead

With a reduction in foreseeable trade risks, Gold August futures contracts at MCX gave up their recent gains, falling by Rs 4,558 from their peak of Rs 1,01,078/10 grams hit on June 16. The yellow metal prices opened lower by Rs 463 or 0.48% at Rs 96,527/10 grams on Monday, while the silver September futures contracts were largely trading flat at Rs 1,08,190/kg, falling by 0.22% or Rs 239.

Gold prices fell back to about $3,310 per ounce while silver prices held firm at around $36.60 as traders balanced fresh trade tensions and possible policy shifts. President Trump reaffirmed that higher tariffs will hit nations without deals starting August 1, but Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested countries may get three more weeks to negotiate, reducing immediate trade risks and gold’s safe-haven demand.

“At the same time, robust US jobs data has dampened speculation of a July Federal Reserve rate cut, further weighing on bullion sentiment as investors wait for updates on the US fiscal outlook,” noted Rahul Kalantri, VP of Commodities at Mehta Equities.

On Friday, gold and silver settled on a slightly positive note in the domestic and international markets. Gold August futures contract settled at Rs 96,990 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.21% and silver September futures contract settled at Rs 1,08,429 per kilogram with a gain of 0.18%.

Gold and silver gained last week despite upbeat U.S. non-farm employment data amid fears of higher U.S. debt and deficits and weakness in the dollar index.

Today, the US Dollar Index, DXY, was hovering near the 97.05 mark, falling 0.13 or 0.13%.

The U.S. non-farm employment surged in the last month and came up at 1,47,000 against expectations of 1,11,000 and the unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1% against expectations of 4.3% and limited the gains of precious metals but the dollar index is trading at 3-1/2 years low and the U.S. 10-year bond yields are also trading below 4.30% and supported gold and silver prices.

“Gold and silver also gained amid the U.S. President’s tax cut bill could increase the U.S. debt burden and also increase fiscal deficits and support safe-haven buying of precious metals,” said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.

“We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index and deadline of the U.S. trade deals and gold prices could hold its support level of $3,240 per troy ounce and silver prices could also hold $35.40 per troy ounce levels on a weekly closing basis,” he added.

How to trade gold?

Manoj Kumar Jain suggested the following ranges for gold and silver on MCX:

• Gold has support at Rs 96,650-96,300 and resistance at Rs 97,400-97,770
  
• Silver has support at Rs 1,07,700-1,07,000 and resistance at Rs 1,09,200-1,10,000
  

Jain suggests buying silver around Rs 1,07,700 with a stop loss of Rs 1,06,650 for a target of Rs 1,09,200-1,10,000.

Gold rates in physical markets

Gold Price today in Delhi

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Delhi stand at Rs 58,528/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 62,392/8 grams.

Gold Price today in Mumbai

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Mumbai stand at Rs 56,968/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,680/8 grams.

Gold Price today in Chennai

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Chennai stand at Rs 56,952/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,696/8 grams.

Gold Price today in Hyderabad

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Hyderabad stand at Rs 57,208/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,968/8 grams.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)