Seth WalderJul 10, 2025, 06:05 AM ET
- Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
Let's grade the offseason.
With the NFL draft behind us, free agency (mostly) in the books and the trade market cooling down, it's time to look at how each team has positioned itself for success in 2025 and beyond with moves since the conclusion of Super Bowl LIX.
I'm grading teams on their decision-making -- which is important to do somewhat in the moment -- as opposed to simply tallying the quantity of talent added. I'm evaluating their choices in free agency, the draft, trades, coaching hires and anything else that has come up since mid-February. I consider the context of each move, from player evaluation to contracts to value to contention time horizon to positional supply and demand.
Let's get grading, starting with the team that had my favorite offseason -- the Rams -- and ending with the only "D" grade of 2025:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Los Angeles Rams: A
Biggest move: Retaining QB Matthew Stafford
Move I liked: Receiving a future first-round pick in a draft-day trade with Atlanta
Move I disliked: Re-signing WR Tutu Atwell
The Rams' offseason was great because it involved moves that will help the team win now and later.
The offseason began with rumors that Stafford could be leaving, and the Rams granted him permission to talk to other teams to discuss his value. Though Stafford had conversations with the Giants and Raiders, he ended up re-signing with Los Angeles on a reworked deal that pays him a fully guaranteed $40 million in 2025 and a non-guaranteed $40 million in 2026. That's a good value for the team considering Stafford's ability.
This seemed well-played by the Rams, who to some degree called Stafford's bluff. Stafford got more money from the Rams than he previously was slated for, but they were able to keep a top quarterback at an affordable price.
The team also made two other high-priced moves to support its QB. Most notably, the Rams signed wide receiver Davante Adams to a two-year deal that averages $22 million per season (and includes $26 million fully guaranteed). The 32-year-old Adams is not the player he once was, though he managed 2.1 yards per route run last season and his open score in ESPN's receiving metrics was a more-than-respectable 77.
There are no guarantees, but I like this move, especially coupled with the team's decision to release Cooper Kupp. He is also 32 but is three years removed from his latest 1,000-yard season. The Rams were right to move on.
They also re-signed left tackle Alaric Jackson to a three-year deal that averages under $18.8 million per year with $35.4 million fully guaranteed, per Roster Management System. Jackson has become a plus starter at tackle and was above average in both pass block win rate and run block win rate last season.
The Rams also scored big in the trade market. Most notably, they traded down with Atlanta on draft night in a deal that netted Los Angeles picks Nos. 46 and 242 and a 2026 first-rounder for Nos. 26 and 101. This was a big score, as the Rams came away in great shape in terms of average value but with upside for much more. If the Falcons fail this season -- which is squarely in the range of outcomes -- the Rams will have netted themselves a very high pick. And with Stafford being 37 years old, that pick could help bring them his successor.
They also pulled a coup in trading guard Jonah Jackson to the Bears. The Rams were on the hook for $8.5 million in guaranteed money out of a total $17.5 million owed to Jackson -- whom the Rams tried to move to center before he suffered an injury and was later benched. At that price, Jackson was a potential cut candidate, and if he was going to be traded, I figured the Rams would have to eat a portion of the contract.
I figured wrong. The Bears came in and gave the Rams a sixth-round pick to take Jackson and the full contract off their hands.
Not everything was perfect, though. The Rams signed Atwell to a one-year, $10 million deal that had me wondering: Who was clamoring to pay him $9 million?
San Francisco 49ers: A-
Biggest move: Signing QB Brock Purdy to an extension
Move I liked: Hiring Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator
Move I disliked: None
After a disappointing 6-11 campaign, the 49ers opened their offseason by bringing back Saleh, their defensive coordinator from 2017 to 2020. Though his head coaching tenure with the Jets was shaky, his defenses ranked in the top five in expected points added per play in 2022, 2023 and the first five weeks of 2024, before he was fired. After the firing, the Jets' defense plummeted to 30th in EPA per play.
But the 49ers' biggest move came when Purdy's long-awaited extension finally happened, as the 49ers gave their quarterback a deal worth $53 million per year, with $100 million fully guaranteed. There are mixed opinions about Purdy's exact level of responsibility for the 49ers' passing success, but he's a perfect fit for what they want to do.
The 49ers reached elite levels of passing efficiency with Purdy in 2023, performing at a higher level than they managed with Jimmy Garoppolo. The deal was also cheaper than I expected. If it had been $60 million per year it would have been in line with Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love's 2024 deals when adjusting for salary cap inflation, and I wouldn't have blinked.
Prior to free agency, the 49ers traded Deebo Samuel Sr. to the Commanders for a fifth-round pick. It was a year too late, though that's easy to say with the benefit of hindsight. Samuel's production has declined -- he recorded only 670 receiving yards and 1.8 yards per route run in 2024. He has always scored poorly in both open and catch score in ESPN's receiver tracking metrics, which didn't matter at his peak because he essentially broke the yards-after-catch score scale.
But his YAC score has steadily declined, and at age 29, I doubt it will ever reach its previous highs. The 49ers did well to get a Day 3 pick to avoid paying Samuel $17.6 million in 2025. They also have options to replace his production.
San Francisco also doled out big-money extensions to two more core players: linebacker Fred Warner and tight end George Kittle. The Niners paid Warner $21 million per year but without a ton of risk -- the deal features only $21 million fully guaranteed, per OverTheCap.com (there are rolling guarantees, however). Warner is worth it, and the extension comes in much lower in terms of average per year than his 2021 deal if we adjust for cap inflation.
Kittle also got a raise. He had been scheduled to earn $15 million in the final year of his contract, per OverTheCap.com, but instead the 49ers and Kittle agreed to an extension that averages $19 million per year with $35 million fully guaranteed. It would not have been outlandish to have traded the 31-year-old, but if things break right they 49ers will be back in the title hunt, and keeping Kittle -- coming off a great season -- would be my choice, too.
The 49ers suffered significant losses in free agency -- Aaron Banks, Charvarius Ward, Jaylon Moore, Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw -- but I thought most of these departures made sense for the team.
San Francisco also made a win-win trade for Bryce Huff, giving up a Day 3 pick for the former Jets and Eagles pass rusher. The 49ers are paying Huff a little under $8 million to find out if they can recapture some of his New York magic.
Arizona Cardinals: A-
Biggest move: Signing Edge Josh Sweat
Move I liked: Extending TE Trey McBride
Move I disliked: Not re-signing G Will Hernandez
The Cardinals entered the offseason looking to improve their defense. Ultimately, the team brought in only one marquee free agent -- Sweat -- but did so at a position of serious need.
Sweat, who got a four-year deal averaging $19.1 million, was coming off an incredible Super Bowl in which he recorded 2.5 sacks and was a contender for game MVP. In some ways I was surprised he didn't get more money, but there are reasons to be skeptical.
In 2024, Sweat's pass rush get off (time to cross the line of scrimmage) slowed from 0.73 seconds to 0.85. And his pass rush win rate at edge fell substantially, too, from 20% in 2023 (above average) to 11% (below average). Prior to 2024, Sweat had had three consecutive seasons of 20%-plus pass rush win rates at edge, topping out at 26% in 2021. Though he had a great finish, I'd have been more bullish on Sweat a year ago. He has also had only one double-digit sack season.
But Sweat was the best free agent edge and has shown an ability to win on a down-to-down basis in previous seasons. So, I'm on board with the four-year deal averaging $19.1 million, especially considering how much Arizona needed an edge rusher.
Arizona also signed McBride to an extension -- similarly averaging $19 million per year -- that I'm in favor of. McBride had a very efficient 2.32 yards per route run (and totaled 1,146 receiving yards) in 2024, performing as one of the league's best tight ends. The money puts him near the top of the tight end market but is slightly cheaper per year, after adjusting for salary cap inflation, than what the Patriots gave Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry in 2021.
I also liked some of Arizona's smaller deals. At $6.25 million per year for two years, Jacoby Brissett's contract is a steal, and I wonder why teams with shakier quarterback situations didn't top that. Also, bringing defensive tackle Calais Campbell back on a one-year, $5.5 million deal isn't just a feel-good story. Campbell led all players in run stop win rate in 2024, along with a 12% pass rush win rate that ranked ninth among defensive tackles.
One quibble might be the Cardinals not bringing back Hernandez or finding a cheaper guard. Hernandez tore his left ACL early last season but put up a very solid 94.6% pass block win rate or higher before the injury and in each of the previous two seasons.
Denver Broncos: A-
Biggest move: Re-signing DT D.J. Jones
Move I liked: Re-signing Jones
Move I disliked: Not adding more at wide receiver
The Broncos ended last season as the best defense in the league by EPA per play and decided to get even better. They signed linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga, re-signed Jones and used their first-round pick on cornerback Jahdae Barron. This defense could be outrageous, and I like that the Broncos went this route.
We often talk about teams pushing their chips in when their quarterback is on a rookie contract, but there's no requirement to use those chips on offense. Bo Nix was fine (perhaps a little overrated) in his first season, ranking 18th in QBR with quite a bit of that value coming from his legs (he ranked 27th in yards per passing attempt and 28% in completion percentage over expectation). He could show growth in Year 2, but a team with a quarterback like Nix needs a stacked roster. Denver has that.
The move I liked best was bringing back Jones at $13 million per year in an offseason when defensive tackles were highly paid. Jones ranked second in run stop win rate as an interior defender last season and sixth in run stop push -- distance pushed on run plays -- as a nose tackle, helping shut down the run and forcing opponents to test a secondary that features Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II.
I can get on board with the Hufanga and Greenlaw moves, in part because both players represent high (injury) risk and high upside. If the Broncos are going to contend in 2025, they'll need some gambles to pay off -- so it makes sense to take a few. Greenlaw's contract is particularly appealing because only $11.5 million is fully guaranteed.
The big offensive addition was tight end Evan Engram, giving Sean Payton and Nix another playmaking receiving threat. Engram, who will turn 31 before the season, is no sure bet considering his age and the hamstring and labrum injuries that limited him to nine games in 2024. The Broncos didn't get Engram for cheap ($11.5 million per year and $16.5 million fully guaranteed), but he represents a huge upgrade.
I wanted to see the Broncos to do more at receiver. Besides counting on Courtland Sutton and Engram, they are likely hoping for Marvin Mims Jr. or Troy Franklin to break out. Perhaps they'll end up making a move for another veteran -- maybe Keenan Allen or Amari Cooper?
Baltimore Ravens: B+
Biggest move: Re-signing LT Ronnie Stanley
Move I liked: Signing CB Chidobe Awuzie
Move I disliked: Drafting Edge Mike Green in the second round
Baltimore's best and most significant move, re-signing Stanley to a three-year, $60 million contract, came before the 2025 league year began. It was hardly a risk-free choice. Though he played all 17 games in 2024, the 31-year-old Stanley has missed 36 games over the past five seasons because of ankle, shoulder and knee injuries.
But re-signing Stanley was critical because of the lack of alternatives. The next best available free agent tackle was probably Dan Moore Jr., who offers a bit less certainty than Stanley (and I'm a Moore fan!). Moore signed with the Titans for basically the same terms as Stanley. The Chiefs had to resort to a combination of Jaylon Moore and first-rounder Josh Simmons to fill their tackle hole.
Given the Ravens' status as a leading Super Bowl contender, left tackle was no place to take a risk. And they didn't have to pay a premium! Stanley's $20 million per year ($44 million fully guaranteed) is a long way from the top of the tackle market. In the past five years Trent Williams, David Bakhtiari, Laremy Tunsil, Tristan Wirfs and Penei Sewell signed deals that averaged over $30 million per year in 2025 money when adjusted for salary cap inflation, per OverTheCap.com.
Beyond Stanley, the Ravens did their typically helpful roster-augmenting moves at the margins. Veterans DeAndre Hopkins, Jaire Alexander and Chidobe Awuzie were signed to cheap contracts. After picking up Alexander and Awuzie and drafting safety Malaki Starks in the first round, Baltimore's secondary looks incredibly deep despite losing Brandon Stephens. And the Ravens project to receive four compensatory picks in next year's draft, per OverTheCap.com.
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Last month, Baltimore gave receiver Rashod Bateman a three-year, $36.75 million extension. He showed major improvement in 2024, posting an 81 open score -- a big jump from his previous figures -- though he still averaged only 1.9 yards per route run. There's some reason to be skeptical considering Bateman's struggles prior to 2024 (he hasn't hit 800 receiving yards in a season and never had 600 before last season), but that's hardly a concern considering what they paid to extend him.
The Ravens also released long-time kicker Justin Tucker this offseason. Tucker was the subject of an NFL investigation into sexual misconduct following a report by the Baltimore Banner earlier this year that Tucker had been accused of misconduct by 16 massage therapists. The alleged misconduct reportedly occurred between 2012 and 2016.
Tucker, who denied the allegations, was later suspended for 10 games by the NFL after the league found he had violated its personal conduct policy.
The Ravens also selected pass rusher Mike Green in the second round despite multiple teams having him off their draft boards because of multiple sexual assault allegations.
Tennessee Titans: B+
Biggest move: Drafting QB Cameron Ward
Move I liked: Signing G Kevin Zeitler
Move I disliked: Signing Edge Dre'Mont Jones
The most important decision the Titans made wasn't much of one at all. The QB-needy Titans had the No. 1 pick in a draft with one quarterback viewed substantially above the rest. The result of this offseason will swing more on Ward's performance than anything else, but it was the choices made around the rookie that involved real decisions.
I liked what the Titans did with their offensive line. The best part was bringing in Zeitler on a one-year, $9 million deal. Yes, he's 35, but he's still a great pass protector (he ranked sixth in pass block win rate last season) and is better than free agents such as Aaron Banks and Will Fries, who made so much money.
I'm a fan of the Dan Moore Jr. signing, too, though I realize that's a contrarian take. Moore's deal, with an average annual value of $20.5 million, doesn't look great in comparison to Ronnie Stanley's three-year, $60 million deal with the Ravens, but I think that's because Stanley's deal was cheaper than expected and the alternatives to Moore were rough. And Moore improved significantly in 2024, posting a 93% pass block win rate at tackle, 11th best at the position.
Starting-level tackles are hard to find in free agency, and the Titans need to protect their rookie QB. An offensive line of Moore, Peter Skoronski, Lloyd Cushenberry III, Zeitler and JC Latham will have to break right, but there's tremendous upside.
One free agency move I did not like was signing Jones at one year, $10 million. It's a substantial pay cut from his previous contract with the Seahawks, but for good reason -- he never lived up to that deal. In fact, with more seasons of data, Jones' 2022 contract season with Denver seems to be an outlier.
The Titans cut edge rusher Harold Landry III in a cost-saving move that made sense given Tennessee's timeline to success and Landry's age (29). The Titans got the best of the Cowboys in dealing linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr., getting the Cowboys to pick up Murray's contract (he's due $7.5 million in 2025) and a seventh-round pick to Dallas in exchange for a sixth-round pick, despite Murray coming off a poor season. Tennessee also made a good value trade with the Seahawks early in the second round of the draft.
Buffalo Bills: B+
Biggest move: Extending QB Josh Allen
Move I liked: Extending WR Khalil Shakir
Move I disliked: Signing WR Joshua Palmer
The Bills' offseason wasn't flashy because its big moves were extensions for key players who will make up the future core of this team. Buffalo doled out new deals to Allen, Shakir, Greg Rousseau, Christian Benford and Terrel Bernard. These were logical moves, and it made sense to get ahead on young players who could have commanded more money had they been closer to free agency.
I particularly liked the Shakir move. In a world where Dyami Brown and Tutu Atwell are earning $10 million, landing Shakir on an extension that starts after this season for $13.25 million per year through 2029 is a bargain. Though Shakir recorded "only" 821 receiving yards last season, his 2.4 yards per route run suggests there's a higher ceiling.
The Bills took a couple of swings along the defensive line in free agency, adding Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi -- who both face six-game suspensions for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs -- and the oft-injured Joey Bosa, whose deal would be a total bargain if he could stay on the field (a massive "if").
Buffalo's "big" move at receiver was signing Palmer in free agency. Palmer is an uninspiring choice given his 1.6 yards per route run last season (and failure to ever reach 1.9 yards per route run in a season) despite playing with Justin Herbert in Los Angeles. When the Bills didn't draft a wide receiver until the seventh round, GM Brandon Beane took issue with the criticism.
The reality is that wide receiver is a weakness, but the Bills are also basically capped out -- they have almost no room in 2025 and are well over the 2026 cap -- so it was going to be tough to bring aboard a better veteran. Given the Bills' status as a Super Bowl contender, I don't think it was wrong to critique their decision to not select a wide receiver in the first three rounds of the draft. That means Keon Coleman, the No. 33 pick in 2024, will have to take a big step in Year 2.
The Bills selected cornerback Maxwell Hairston in the first round in April. Hairston was accused of sexual assault in 2021 while at Kentucky, and GM Brandon Beane said the team "fully investigated" the allegation before drafting him. Earlier this month, Hairston was sued by the woman who accused him of sexual assault.
Philadelphia Eagles: B+
Biggest move: Re-signing LB Zack Baun
Move I liked: Re-signing Baun
Move I disliked: Trading S C.J. Gardner-Johnson for G Kenyon Green and light draft capital
The Eagles started their Super Bowl defense with a banger, re-signing Defensive Player of the Year candidate Baun to a three-year deal worth $17 million per year with $34 million fully guaranteed. Not only is Baun critical to Philadelphia's defense, but the contract is a bit of a bargain -- even after just one breakout elite season.
At $17 million per year, Baun's deal is expensive but far from top of the linebacker market: Fred Warner and Shaquille Leonard's 2021 contracts were worth $29 million and $30 million, respectively, in 2025 money when adjusting for cap inflation. Plus, Jamien Sherwood and Nick Bolton each signed for $15 million per year this offseason. They're good linebackers, but I'd pay $2 million more per season to sign Baun any day of the week.
The Eagles also worked out extensions with Lane Johnson, Saquon Barkley and Cam Jurgens. Johnson's deal added $8 million over the next two years and a 2027 year at $25 million. Though he's 35, Johnson is also arguably the NFL's best tackle, so he is well worth a new deal that averages $25 million over three years -- below the top of the market.
Barkley's deal put him near the top of the running back market (after adjusting for cap inflation) and added more than $20 million in new fully guaranteed money. Neither Johnson nor Barkley's deals were necessary on paper, but the Eagles rewarded their stars and kept them happy (while showing the locker room that they're willing to reward top performance). The degree to which they upped Barkley's contract seemed unnecessary and could backfire, given how quickly running backs can fall off late in their careers.
Jurgens' extension was more typical as a young player who can be a future building block. He ranked seventh in pass block win rate at center in 2024. It was by no means cheap, but the deal comes with plenty of upside.
The Eagles lost some big names in free agency -- Milton Williams, Josh Sweat and Mekhi Becton. In all three cases, it made sense for Philadelphia to not pay market price. Williams was overpaid, the team has other (arguably lesser) options at edge rusher, and the Eagles probably believe they can develop other guards like they did Becton.
The Eagles made several trades. I was not a fan of flipping Gardner-Johnson and a sixth-round pick to the Texans for Green and a 2026 fifth-round pick. On the other hand, they did very well to get a fifth-round pick and backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson from the Browns in exchange for fellow QB Kenny Pickett. And I thought the deal sending Bryce Huff to the 49ers was a win-win considering Huff clearly didn't fit in Philadelphia.
The Eagles made a few low-key, solid free agent additions in edge rushers Joshua Uche (whose 19% pressure rate in 2022 was the highest in a season since ESPN began tracking the stat in 2017) and Azeez Ojulari, and cornerback Adoree' Jackson.
Cleveland Browns: B+
Biggest move: Trading down from No. 2 to No. 5 in the draft
Move I liked: Trading down in the draft
Move I disliked: Signing Edge Myles Garrett to an extension
The Deshaun Watson era in Cleveland is almost certainly over, and the Browns entered this offseason as a rebuilding team in need of a quarterback.
Their moves reflected that. Most notably, they traded down on draft night, earning a quarterback haul from the Jaguars (who selected Travis Hunter), which gave the Browns an additional first-round pick in 2026, when they likely will be looking to draft a QB. They also took two midround QBs in Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, giving them multiple chances at hitting a lottery ticket (Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett are also in the Browns' quarterbacks room).
Those are good moves for a team in their position that will help build capital and regroup for 2026 and beyond. The Browns also took cheap swings at a couple of offensive linemen -- Teven Jenkins and Cornelius Lucas -- who have posted decent pass block win rates in the past. Defensive tackle Maliek Collins, who signed a two-year, $20 million deal, has a pass rush win rate of an above-average pass-rushing defensive tackle.
Not every move fit into the rebuilding thesis -- most notably, the Garrett extension. I criticized the move at the time and feel the same now. This was a missed opportunity for Cleveland to turn Garrett -- a Browns legend but also heading into the latter half of his career -- into future assets. Instead, they handed Garrett a huge contract, burning his value in 2025 (and perhaps beyond) when the Browns aren't contenders. The Browns are not in a good cap position and could have used the financial savings, too.
I would have liked to have seen the Browns trade down again from the No. 5 spot to earn even more 2026 or 2027 draft capital, though it's unclear whether that was an option. Had they traded Garrett and made another first-round trade down, the Browns could have been in an incredible position to jump-start their rebuild next offseason.
The Pickett trade was also a head-scratcher. The Browns didn't know they were going to draft two quarterbacks when they dealt for him, but they still gave up more for him than the Eagles did a year ago, even though Pickett didn't show anything to improve his value during the 2024 season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: B+
Biggest move: Re-signing WR Chris Godwin
Move I liked: Signing Edge Haason Reddick
Move I disliked: None
The biggest move was keeping Godwin. The 29-year-old was scorching hot in the seven games he played in 2024 -- averaging 2.5 yards per route run -- before a dislocated left ankle knocked him out for the season.
I think it's important to not overweight that seven-game sample (we have a much larger sample of Godwin being good but not elite), but the Bucs didn't pay him elite money. His three-year deal cost $22 million per year (with $44 million fully guaranteed), which is a fair amount but a bit off the pace of the game's best No. 2 receivers. It made sense to bring him back at that price.
The team later drafted wide receiver Emeka Egbuka at pick No. 19, which should help if Godwin isn't ready for the start of the season. Egbuka also offers long-term promise with Godwin and Mike Evans in the back halves of their careers.
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Field Yates and Dan Graziano explain why the Buccaneers could contend in the NFC with Baker Mayfield's continuity at QB.
Tampa Bay also took what I thought was a worthwhile gamble on Reddick at one year, $14 million. Reddick is coming off a lost season that featured a long contract standoff, 10 games played and only one sack. But Reddick has been an elite pass rusher (he posted double-digit sacks every year from 2020 to 2023) and could help Todd Bowles' defense if he bounces back.
The Buccaneers also brought back stalwart linebacker Lavonte David on a one-year, $9 million deal and guard Ben Bredeson on a three-year deal averaging $7.33 million. They lost their offensive coordinator for a second straight year, with Liam Coen departing to be the Jaguars' head coach.
Houston Texans: B+
Biggest move: Trading away OT Laremy Tunsil
Move I liked: Trading down from No. 25 to No. 34 in the draft
Move I disliked: Trading for G Ed Ingram
Offensive line play sunk the Texans' offense last season. So naturally, they dealt their best lineman away. It's a move I struggled to assess at the time and still do, given its unorthodox nature. As wild as it seems, I didn't hate it, because the return was strong -- a late third-round pick, a seventh-round pick, a future second-round pick and a swap of fourths.
Houston must have believed the haul was worth more than Tunsil (perhaps they were worried he'd want a new contract soon), who is still a great pass blocker but isn't on the same level in the run game and generated a league-high 19 penalties last season.
It leaves Houston with questions on the offensive line, though. It signed Cam Robinson and Trent Brown and drafted Aireontae Ersery. All three of those players -- along with Blake Fisher -- could be options at tackle. Tytus Howard is likely to play guard along with another free agent signing, Laken Tomlinson, though the team traded for Ingram and still has Juice Scruggs, who could also compete at center with Jarrett Patterson and Jake Andrews.
I liked the Robinson and Brown signings. I've long believed Robinson was overrated, but on a reasonable one-year, $12 million deal, he raises the floor at a tackle spot. Brown has battled durability issues but is worth bringing in on a one-year, $2.35 million deal.
The Texans made a good draft trade -- dealing No. 25 to the Giants for Nos. 34 and 99 and a 2026 third-round pick -- though it might have looked better if Josh Conerly Jr. or Josh Simmons fell to them at 34. The Texans took Ersery later in the second round to give them some youth and upside at tackle.
I did not like the Ingram trade. The Texans surrendered a future sixth-round pick for the former Viking, who was benched last season. If Ingram ends up being only a depth player, giving up a sixth-round pick and paying him the $3.3 million he's owed this year will be a steep price.
A solid lower-key move was signing Darrell Taylor for one year, $4.75 million. Taylor has put up almost average pass rush win rates for an edge rusher the past couple of seasons and recorded 9.5 sacks in 2022. He's a solid rotational player to play behind Houston's stacked edge rusher duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
New York Jets: B
Biggest move: Hiring head coach Aaron Glenn
Move I liked: Signing QB Justin Fields
Move I disliked: Not extending WR Garrett Wilson and CB Sauce Gardner
The most important part of the Jets' offseason was them recognizing they needed to reset. It started with a full regime change -- Glenn as coach and Darren Mougey as general manager -- a given after Woody Johnson rashly fired Robert Saleh after five games in 2024 and followed up by firing GM Joe Douglas shortly after.
But the wise part came when the Jets took a long shot on Fields, giving them a quarterback who is probably a one-year fill-in but with the upside to be more. This was preferable to trying to hang on to mediocrity with Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford -- who are all at the end of their careers and, in Stafford's case, would have cost more than Fields.
Elsewhere in free agency, the Jets made a fine deal to re-sign breakout linebacker Jamien Sherwood and brought in safety Andre Cisco on a reasonable one-year deal. But the $12 million per year and $23 million fully guaranteed they gave to cornerback Brandon Stephens, a downgrade from the departed D.J. Reed, felt too costly.
New York used its first draft pick on offensive tackle Armand Membou, helping build what could turn into a very strong offensive line to presumably support Fields or another QB.
Two major questions remain: Will the Jets sign Wilson and/or Gardner to extensions? Since both are coming off down seasons after previously demonstrating elite ability, this is when the Jets should work out a deal -- hoping to get a slight discount on what they might pay a year from now. But as with all contracts, it takes two to tango.
Las Vegas Raiders: B
Biggest move: Trading for QB Geno Smith
Move I liked: Re-signing DT Adam Butler
Move I disliked: Drafting RB Ashton Jeanty at No. 6
It's an all-new Raiders team. Pete Carroll is in, with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and general manager John Spytek in tow. And Smith, for whom the Raiders made a shocking trade for in early March, as the new QB. Carroll and Smith are both in the latter stages of their careers. But the Raiders believe the duo can right the ship. They each ought to be an upgrade.
It's in that vein that I think the Smith trade was worthwhile. Yes, he's 34. And yes, he's coming off a weaker statistical season in which he ranked just 21st in QBR (albeit having to work behind a suspect Seattle offensive line and with a lackluster running game). But the Raiders surrendered only a third-round pick, and his contract averages $37.5 million and would be even less if the Raiders move on before a non-guaranteed 2027 season. That's worth it.
The Raiders also extended Maxx Crosby with two years left on his contract. Crosby was underpaid on his old deal, and his 2025 and 2026 salaries were increased to $32.5 million and $30 million, more commensurate with his ability as a top-flight edge rusher. But the Raiders didn't dole out a new signing bonus and retain Crosby at non-guaranteed salaries in 2027, 2028 and 2029 of $29 million, $26.5 million and $27.4 million. The new contract upped Crosby's short-term pay but also retained upside for the Raiders. It was a good move.
I liked the Raiders' defensive moves in free agency, bringing in safety Jeremy Chinn and retaining Butler and edge rusher Malcolm Koonce. I particularly liked the re-signings -- Koonce showed pass-rushing promise when he posted a 17% pass rush win rate last season and Butler is coming off a year in which he ranked sixth and 16th in run stop win rate and pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, respectively. Koonce signed a one-year, $11 million deal and Butler returned on a three-year deal averaging $5.5 million per year.
I was not a fan of paying Alex Cappa $5 million considering he ranked last among 64 guards in pass block win rate last season. I also take issue with the drafting of Jeanty at No. 6.
Jeanty is a thrilling player, don't get me wrong. But it's bad to take a running back that early considering he'll only provide surplus value if he is elite because his contract is already expensive compared to the position. The opportunity cost of taking a player at a premium position (it's much harder to find an elite tackle, wide receiver or edge rusher in free agency) is so high. For a more extensive look at this question, I recommend my colleague Bill Barnwell's article on the subject from 2023.
Later in the draft, the Raiders made a couple of nice Day 2 value trades.
Indianapolis Colts: B
Biggest move: Signing QB Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million deal
Move I liked: Signing CB Charvarius Ward
Move I disliked: None
The Colts again signaled their lack of belief in quarterback Anthony Richardson by signing Jones to compete for the starting job. Jones became the likely Week 1 starter when Richardson was sidelined in June because of an aggravation of the shoulder injury first sustained in 2023 -- though Jones might have already been the favorite.
Jones was not the most exciting addition but was a somewhat logical one. By pairing Jones and Richardson, they get two long shots -- with Jones providing a higher floor. It's better to take two swings at quarterback than one, but the most likely result is that the Colts' 2026 starter is neither player.
Whomever is playing quarterback will get to throw to new playmaking tight end Tyler Warren, whom Indianapolis drafted in the first round. He joins a pretty decent receiving group alongside Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr. and Adonai Mitchell (whose 82 open score as a rookie shows promise).
The Colts made major free agent additions in the secondary, signing Ward and safety Camryn Bynum to play in new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo's scheme. The Bynum signing was fine, but the Ward deal (three years at $18 million per year) was strong. Ward has allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap (better than average) or better in five of the past six seasons, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
The Colts lost a major free agent in guard Will Fries, but he signed an overpriced deal with the Vikings, so it was perfectly reasonable to let him walk. They are now expected to slide tackle Matt Goncalves inside.
I couldn't find a single move I strongly disliked. It doesn't mean I love their offseason, but I didn't have a major issue with any part of it.
New York Giants: B
Biggest move: Trading up for QB Jaxson Dart
Move I liked: Signing QB Jameis Winston
Move I disliked: Signing CB Paulson Adebo
The Giants entered the offseason needing a quarterback. They acquired three. In free agency, they brought in both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for a combined $14 million in cap space. It was a good bargain.
At the time, the Giants didn't know if they'd be able to draft a first-round QB. Wilson raises the floor and Winston the ceiling. Even though neither are the team's future quarterback, why not try both at that cost?
The real investment was made in the draft by trading back into the first round to select Dart at No. 25 (after picking edge rusher Abdul Carter at No. 3). To move up from No. 34 to No. 25, the Giants dealt the Texans No. 99 and a 2026 third-round pick.
It was a no-brainer for Houston, but that doesn't mean the Giants were wrong to make the deal. The math for draft trades completely changes when quarterbacks are involved, because the upside is so much higher than for any other position. This was a risk well worth taking. Dart might not work out, but the Giants gave themselves a chance to find a franchise quarterback.
1:34
Why Kevin Clark struggles to see Giants' vision with Russell Wilson
The "First Take" crew analyzes whether quarterback Russell Wilson will succeed with the Giants this season.
Their most expensive free agent acquisition was Adebo. I was not a fan of the move. Adebo, who suffered a broken femur in Week 7 last season, had strong on-ball numbers over the previous two seasons combined, with minus-49 EPA allowed as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But on-ball production isn't stable from year to year, and metrics that I would consider more important -- such as target rate and yards per coverage snap -- are more worrying. In his limited sample last season, Adebo was targeted 21% of the time (most by any outside corner with at least 250 coverage snaps) and had a high 1.6 yards per coverage snap allowed.
Their other major secondary signing, safety Jevon Holland, was better. That the Giants landed Holland for $15 million per year -- roughly the same as Camryn Bynum and less than Tre'von Moehrig -- despite being considered by some to be the best safety in the free agent class, was encouraging.
The Giants re-signed receiver Darius Slayton at $12 million per year -- slightly surprising considering Slayton has seemingly fallen out of favor multiple times during his New York tenure. He's coming off a down season in which he recorded only 1.2 yards per route run, but I think it's a fine move to bring him back at this cost considering New York's need at outside receiver.
Los Angeles Chargers: B
Biggest move: Drafting RB Omarion Hampton in the first round
Move I liked: Signing G Mekhi Becton
Move I disliked: Not adding more at edge rusher
The Chargers brought in some talent while retaining significant flexibility going forward -- no team has more 2026 cap space.
Their biggest free agency move was one I really liked, signing Becton to a two-year deal at $10 million per year. Last season, the Chargers ranked 25th in yards before contact on running back carries (2.2) and 26th in yards per contact on interior runs (2.0). That's where Becton, who successfully rehabilitated his career with the Eagles last season, can help. His 72% run block win rate was above average for a guard while his 92% pass block win rate was average.
That doesn't make him elite, but some teams paid elite prices for far-from-elite guards this offseason (looking at you, Green Bay). Becton's cost is plenty reasonable and gives the Chargers a significant upgrade over last year's right guard, Trey Pipkins III.
The Chargers also brought in center Andre James to compete with Bradley Bozeman, whom they re-signed. Both moves were cheap, and I like the potentially strong pass protection James can bring.
Edge rusher Khalil Mack is back on a one-year, $18 million deal. Even as a 33-year-old, Mack got the job done last season and earned a Pro Bowl berth. His pass rush win rate was down to a below average 13%, though he has a long history of outproducing his win rate. It's a fine cost for one more season of Mack.
If anything, I wish the Chargers invested more in this area -- after Mack they have Bud Dupree, Tuli Tuipulotu and fourth-round pick Kyle Kennard after releasing Joey Bosa in early March. I'd have liked to have seen them pursue a better option in free agency or the draft.
The Chargers drafted Hampton in the first round, and I'll levy the same critique as I did for the Raiders selecting Ashton Jeanty at No. 6 -- it's poor value. But it's significantly more palatable at No. 22 than in the top 10. The Chargers also added Najee Harris in free agency.
Chicago Bears: B-
Biggest move: Hiring Ben Johnson
Move I liked: Hiring Johnson
Move I disliked: Signing DT Grady Jarrett to a deal that includes significant 2026 guarantees
The Bears' biggest offseason was luring Johnson out of Detroit to become Chicago's new head coach. Predicting the efficacy of a first-time head coach is very hard -- and maybe I'm making the same old mistake -- but I think Johnson is about the best first-time head coaching candidate you can imagine. He has multiple years of getting the most out of his players and should provide the Bears with an offensive schematic advantage for years if he works out. There are no guarantees, but there's a huge chance Chicago upgraded its coach.
Chicago spent the offseason trying to make the team in Johnson's image. It happened when the Bears selected tight end Colston Loveland at No. 10 in the draft, but it was most notable along the offensive line, where they got a whole new interior by trading for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signing center Drew Dalman.
I was fine with the Thuney trade. The Bears got an elite guard with an exceptional track record for a fourth-round pick, though I might have been tempted to not sign Thuney to a new contract (retaining the flexibility of potentially receiving a compensatory pick if he walked because the Bears don't have much cap space next year). Dalman's deal was also fine, even if it was a shade higher than I might have wanted to spend.
1:14
What's the ceiling for Bears, Caleb Williams this season?
Courtney Cronin lays out her expectations for the Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams this season.
But the Jackson trade was one of the most inexplicable moves of the offseason. A year ago, Jackson signed a three-year, $51 million free agent deal with the Rams and then had a wildly disappointing 2024. The Rams tried him at center, then he was placed on IR after Week 2, returned to action in Week 10 and was benched before playing again in Week 18. In short, he couldn't get on the field at center or guard.
So, one would think his value would be depressed from this time last year. The Bears believed differently. Despite the Rams owing him a guaranteed $8.5 million on the $17.5 million he was owed in 2025, Chicago gave away draft capital to take on Jackson's contract. To make it even wackier, the Bears made $7 million of Jackson's 2026 salary fully guaranteed and added a year to the deal.
Chicago's biggest free agent signing was edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo on a deal that averages $16 million per year with $32 million guaranteed. This was solid, because the Bears need edge help opposite Montez Sweat but also because Odeyingbo has shown he can rush from inside -- he has an impressive 14% pass rush win rate when doing so over the past two seasons.
On the flip side, the Jarrett deal was awful value. They gave him a three-year contract averaging $14.25 million with $28.5 million fully guaranteed, per Roster Management System. That includes a full guarantee on his 2026 base salary when Jarrett, who has been steadily declining, will be 33. Jarrett's pass rush win rate at defensive tackle has dropped every season from 2019 (22%) to 2024 (9%), and he suffered a torn ACL in 2023.
Chicago also signed slot cornerback Kyler Gordon and linebacker T.J. Edwards to extensions that seemed reasonable and made a solid Day 2 trade down in the draft.
Detroit Lions: B-
Biggest move: Extending S Kerby Joseph
Move I liked: Signing CB D.J. Reed
Move I disliked: Reaching for DT Tyleik Williams and WR Isaac TeSlaa
The Lions are dealing with the challenge of their previous success, which resulted in the departure of both of their coordinators for head coaching jobs. Did Dan Campbell hire well again when he made former Broncos passing game coordinator John Morton his offensive coordinator and promoted linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard to defensive coordinator? Those answers could define Detroit's 2025 season.
Not too much is changing for Detroit player-wise. In free agency, the Lions lost cornerback Carlton Davis III to the Patriots and guard Kevin Zeitler to the Titans. But they replaced Davis with D.J. Reed -- an upgrade, and on a contract that's $2 million per year cheaper, too. Reed has been remarkably consistent, averaging 1.1 yards per coverage snap (average for an outside corner) in each of the past five seasons and was under 1.0 in three of them, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Detroit's biggest expenditure came via an extension for Joseph that averages $21.25 million per year but included only $23.1 million fully guaranteed, per OverTheCap.com. Joseph is coming off an incredible season in which he recorded a league-high nine interceptions and was named first-team All-Pro. However, when I asked for feedback from league sources for my 100-player MVP article, most believed box score numbers overstated his value. I do think this is an overly steep contract, even if the guarantees aren't bad.
My biggest qualm came during the draft. At least according to ESPN's Draft Day Predictor, the Lions reached in the first round when they selected Williams. They then traded up to make a severe reach in Round 3 for TeSlaa at pick 70. While we don't always know how the league perceives a player, the Lions have made a habit of this inefficient behavior. It has worked for thus far for this regime, but it's still bad process.
In smaller moves, Detroit brought back linebacker Derrick Barnes on a deal worth $8 million per year and defensive tackle Levi Onwuzurike on a one-year, $4 million contract.
Seattle Seahawks: B-
Biggest move: Trading QB Geno Smith
Move I liked: Guaranteeing only $37.5 million to QB Sam Darnold
Move I disliked: Not signing a free agent guard
The Seahawks opened with a bang, trading Smith to the Raiders in exchange for a third-round pick. At the time of the trade, I was critical and wrote, "If the Seahawks follow up by signing free agent Sam Darnold to a big contract, that would be a poor swap." That's what happened.
In a vacuum, I still prefer Smith to Darnold, but having seen how it shook out and the costs associated with each player, I'm changing my tune. The biggest factor is the contract Darnold received as a free agent -- a three-year deal averaging $33.5 million per year and, most critically, only $37.5 million fully guaranteed, per OverTheCap.com. That number is crucial because while it's worthwhile for Seattle to see what it can get out of Darnold, there's a decent possibility this is a one-year arrangement. If so, the cost is reasonable.
Smith received more from the Raiders -- $37.5 million per year with $58.5 million fully guaranteed. Given his age, he wasn't going to be a long-term solution, so while I prefer Smith to Darnold for 2025, the real question becomes Smith vs. Darnold with $21 million less in guarantees and a third-round pick attached. I can get on board with that.
The Seahawks also took a third-round flier on quarterback Jalen Milroe. For teams without a franchise quarterback, the best thing to do is throw multiple darts at the position until one sticks. Perhaps no one knows this better than the Seahawks, who signed Matt Flynn in free agency the same year they drafted Russell Wilson in Round 3.
Smith was not the only major player the Seahawks dealt, also trading receiver DK Metcalf to the Steelers for a second-round pick and a late-round pick swap. The upside was the compensation -- a second-round pick is not nothing -- and not having to hand Metcalf a new contract. With rising star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba coming into his own and Metcalf coming off a slightly down year in which he averaged 1.9 yards per route run, I can see Seattle's logic. But I would have preferred to pay Metcalf the deal the Steelers gave him. Metcalf is only 27, the contract doesn't contain any 2027 guarantees, and I'm not sure the Seahawks are going to find a more efficient use for their cap space than extending Metcalf.
Plus, losing Metcalf (and Tyler Lockett) meant they needed another receiver. That ended up being 32-year-old Cooper Kupp on a deal worth $15 million per year (with $17.5 million fully guaranteed, which is particularly relevant because it could be just a one-year arrangement). I believe the drop-off from Metcalf to Kupp will be significant.
At the time of the Metcalf trade, I was confident Seattle was going to use some of its newfound found cap space on a free agent guard. I was wrong. While the Seahawks spent their first-round pick on guard Grey Zabel, they did not sign a free agent at the position (they did add tackle Josh Jones, who has played guard in the past).
Instead, they appear poised to start Anthony Bradford or Christian Haynes at guard, which was a missed opportunity considering players such as Teven Jenkins, James Daniels and Mekhi Becton signed for relatively cheap and Will Hernandez is still available.
Seattle made a few more moves in free agency, bringing in edge DeMarcus Lawrence on a three-year deal averaging $10.8 million, re-signing edge Uchenna Nwosu on a $9.8 million-per-year deal and linebacker Ernest Jones IV at $9.5 million per year. I'm particularly interested to see Jones return to Mike Macdonald's defense, where the linebacker could thrive as a blitz threat.
Miami Dolphins: B-
Biggest move: Trading CB Jalen Ramsey and TE Jonnu Smith for S Minkah Fitzpatrick
Move I liked: Trading Ramsey and Smith for Fitzpatrick
Move I disliked: Signing QB Zach Wilson
Miami's biggest addition didn't occur until June 30. That's when the Dolphins traded Ramsey and Smith for Fitzpatrick and a late-round pick swap. It was a good move.
Ramsey backed the Dolphins into a corner with more than $20 million remaining in guaranteed 2025 money. And the Dolphins weren't even pretending he was going to be on the team this season. I thought Miami would barely get any return in which the acquiring team paid the large bulk of Ramsey's outstanding money. The Dolphins did better than I thought.
Fitzpatrick might not be as elite as he was in 2022, but he's a good safety on a favorable contract with two years left and no guaranteed money. And somehow the pick swap favored Miami, too. Considering the cards the Dolphins held, this was a win. Fitzpatrick also helps replace the loss of Jevon Holland, who left in free agency.
That said, Miami was left with a barren cornerback group. As of this writing, ESPN currently lists Storm Duck (three career starts) and Jason Marshall Jr. (fifth-round rookie) as the team's starting outside corners, with Kader Kohou at nickel. The roster suffered another blow when left tackle Terron Armstead retired this offseason. Patrick Paul, last year's second-round pick, figures to be the replacement.
Miami's next largest free agency acquisition was guard James Daniels on a three-year deal averaging $8 million per year. I thought it was a nice signing. Daniels suffered an Achilles injury last September but ranked 25th in pass block win rate at guard and 35th in run block win rate in 2023.
They also brought in Wilson at one year and $6 million, which I thought was a little rich considering Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and Drew Lock went for cheaper.
Miami made a surprising trade July 1, dealing a late-round pick swap for tight end Darren Waller, who decided to come out of retirement. While I wouldn't expect much from Waller, he's worth a shot -- Miami had very little left at receiving tight end after trading Smith.
Ultimately, the Dolphins are in a strange place after a disappointing 8-9 season. There are weak points on the roster, but Miami has only $15 million left in cap space and minus-$9 million in 2026.
Kansas City Chiefs: B-
Biggest move: Trading G Joe Thuney to the Bears for a fourth-round pick
Move I liked: Signing QB Gardner Minshew
Move I disliked: Signing OT Jaylon Moore
Fresh off losing a Super Bowl in part because the offensive line struggled, Kansas City made the surprising choice to deal Thuney, one of its very best offensive linemen. It did make some sense, though. Thuney is 32 -- not necessarily old given offensive linemen can play longer than other positions, but not young -- and was in the last year of his deal.
The Chiefs needed to make some tough choices and opted to keep 26-year-old Trey Smith, a good guard (though not quite good as Thuney), instead. It was a long-term decision. The Chiefs opted to franchise tag Smith, though they had to overpay him because the tag price is based on all offensive linemen rather than only guards. In other words, Smith was paid at a tackle price. Kansas City could still work out a long-term deal with Smith before the Tuesday deadline.
Even without Thuney, the more serious question was at left tackle. Last year's mish-mash of Wanya Morris, Kingsley Suamataia, D.J. Humphries and an out-of-position Thuney wasn't good enough, and the Chiefs had to address the spot.
The best option was Ronnie Stanley, but he flew off the board before free agency. Instead, the Chiefs opted for former 49ers backup Jaylon Moore for $15 million per year (and $21 million fully guaranteed), a risky move. Not only was Moore not a starter (to be fair, he was behind 11-time Pro Bowler Trent Williams), but when he played, our metrics were not a fan. Moore has a career 83% pass block win rate at tackle and was at 81% last season, which would have ranked third worst at the position had he qualified.
But the Chiefs didn't just rely on Moore. They used the No. 32 pick on Josh Simmons, who could compete for the starting job. On one hand, one of Moore, Simmons or Suamataia could win the job and step up. On the other, it's more likely that tackle will be a weakness again, as most first-year tackles struggle. Elsewhere, Kansas City added cornerback Kristian Fulton on a $10 million-per-year deal. Signing Fulton to support Trent McDuffie is a good idea, as cornerback play varies significantly from year to year and Fulton performed at a high level with the Titans in 2022.
Perhaps the Chiefs' best value move was signing Minshew to a one-year, $1.2 million contract. Considering how valuable a backup quarterback can be, getting Minshew -- who earned $15 million last season with the Raiders - at that contract was a total bargain.
Green Bay Packers: C+
Biggest move: Signing G Aaron Banks
Move I liked: Drafting WR Matthew Golden at No. 23
Move I disliked: Signing Banks
The Packers' offseason featured two headlines -- they finally drafted a first-round wide receiver, and they spent big on Banks. Let's take those in reverse.
Banks, a former 49ers guard, signed a four-year deal that averages $19.25 million per year with $27 million fully guaranteed. The issue I have is that we don't have evidence that Banks is anywhere near that caliber of player. Banks is coming off his best season according to win rates, but he ranked only 38th out of 64 guards in pass block win rate (92%) and 46th in run block win rate (69%).
The top of the guard market was frothy, but the Packers paid for not having patience, as Mekhi Becton, Kevin Zeitler and James Daniels all signed for $10 million or less. I would much rather have those players at their price than Banks at his.
Golden gives the team No. 1 WR upside it could use and helps make up for Christian Watson -- who tore his ACL in the regular-season finale -- possibly not being available for much of this season. Green Bay already had a group of solid receivers in Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks (I'm still a believer) and Watson, though entering the offseason running back Josh Jacobs said he believed the team needed a "guy that's proven to be a No. 1 already." Golden is not that, but first-round receivers offer that kind of potential.
The Packers were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league last season (even when excluding the Malik Willis games) but were much more efficient on dropbacks. If they have the confidence to throw more, that would help substantially.
Green Bay made one other sizable addition in free agency -- former Raiders cornerback Nate Hobbs. Hobbs signed a four-year deal averaging $12 million per year with $16 million fully guaranteed. The Packers needed a corner (they cut Jaire Alexander and lost Eric Stokes in free agency), though Hobbs has mostly played in the slot. His numbers were solid in a 2024 season abridged by injury and illness -- he allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap and minus-16 EPA when targeted, per NFL Next Gen Stats. However, in 2022 and 2023 he allowed 1.5 and 1.3 yards per coverage snap, respectively, well more than average. This price felt a bit rich.
If a pass rusher is available late in the offseason or during the season, the Packers could be interested.
New England Patriots: C+
Biggest move: Hiring head coach Mike Vrabel
Move I liked: Hiring Vrabel
Move I disliked: Signing DT Milton Williams
New England's offseason began with the firing of Jerod Mayo and subsequent hiring of Vrabel. While Mayo got a quick hook, it was the right call: There's no time for sunk cost fallacy, and there's strong reason to believe that Vrabel is an upgrade. Vrabel has demonstrated success getting the most of his past rosters.
There's no question that the Patriots significantly improved their roster, spending big in free agency to bring in Williams, Stefon Diggs, Harold Landry III, Robert Spillane, Carlton Davis III and Morgan Moses. The Patriots needed this upgrade -- there's no sense in waiting when you have a good QB under a rookie contract. At the same time, I disliked the value on almost every deal.
Williams earned a contract that, after adjusting for cap inflation, is comparable in fully guaranteed money ($51 million) to what Chris Jones received in 2020, Jonathan Allen in 2021 and Javon Hargrave in 2023. Although he's a nice player, Williams also played only 47% of Philadelphia snaps in 2024 while playing next to other stout defensive linemen.
Diggs gives quarterback Drake Maye a badly needed playmaker, but he is 31 and coming off a torn ACL. Landry has a history of consistent sack production but is 29 and received $26 million fully guaranteed. I believe Davis is a worse player than the man who replaced him in Detroit (D.J. Reed), yet he still cost $18 million per year.
These inefficiencies could cost New England in the future -- money not spent in 2025 can be saved for 2026 and beyond -- but they also unquestionably made the team better.
Minnesota Vikings: C+
Biggest move: Sticking with QB J.J. McCarthy as their starter
Move I liked: Sticking with McCarthy
Move I disliked: Signing DT Jonathan Allen
What to do at quarterback was the biggest, most important decision the Vikings had to make. There were essentially three options -- retain Sam Darnold, sign Aaron Rodgers or start McCarthy, their 2024 first-round pick.
They chose the last option, which I feel is correct. Darnold was coming off a career season, but his performance was overrated by the win-loss record. Despite having an elite playcaller as head coach and the league's best wide receiver, Darnold ranked 14th in QBR last season -- a number that includes his disastrous Week 18 game against the Lions but doesn't factor in his similarly dreadful wild-card game against the Rams.
Ultimately, Darnold's collapse made the choice easy. And the Vikings were correct to parry interest from Rodgers, who has not played well since 2021. Minnesota is in a far different position than the Steelers thanks to McCarthy.
The Vikings are also projected to gain a third-round compensatory pick for losing Darnold and a fourth for losing Daniel Jones, per OverTheCap.com, draft additions that are not trivial. But while I approve of the team's biggest choice this offseason, I was less fond of many of Minnesota's other decisions.
Will Fries is a promising guard, but handing him a five-year deal that averages over $17.5 million per season with $44 million fully guaranteed, per Roster Management System, seems incredibly rich for a player who has recorded average-ish pass block win rates in each of the last two seasons. Guards were hot, but, as has been mentioned earlier, several quality guards signed for $10 million per year or less.
Allen is 30 and declining; he had a below-average 8% pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle last season after being a top-10 player in the category a few seasons ago. Yet Minnesota paid him $17 million per year on a three-year deal (albeit with only $23.3 million fully guaranteed, per OverTheCap.com). That is pricier than the deal the Commanders cut Allen on and makes me think the Vikings should have traded a conditional seventh-round pick to Washington and taken Allen's old contract.
Andrew Van Ginkel is coming off a great season and clearly fits well in Brian Flores' defense, but he never exceeded six sacks before 2024. But Minnesota rewarded him with a one-year extension (through 2026) that added $23 million -- almost all fully guaranteed. Extending Van Ginkel is fine, but it was a bit rich and didn't come with more upside for Minnesota (such as non-guaranteed years after 2026).
Aaron Jones Sr. was long underrated because of his receiving skills but is now a 30-year-old running back, yet the team re-signed him to a multiyear deal with $11.5 million fully guaranteed.
Some of Minnesota's moves were fine, though. The Vikings re-signed cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. at three years and $18 million per year and traded essentially a fifth-round pick for running Jordan Mason, who recorded 1.4 yards over expectation per carry with the 49ers last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Both moves seemed reasonable.
I wasn't a fan of their draft, though. No team needed to trade down more, given Minnesota's dearth of picks, yet they picked guard Donovan Jackson in Round 1 even though they had a good deal available from the Giants and a great one from the Falcons, who traded up for each of the next two picks behind Minnesota. That was a major squandered opportunity.
Cincinnati Bengals: C+
Biggest move: Extending WR Ja'Marr Chase
Move I liked: Extending Chase
Move I disliked: Not working out a new deal with Edge Trey Hendrickson
The Bengals' offseason is defined by the two stars they paid -- Chase and Tee Higgins -- and the one they haven't, Hendrickson.
Let's address the receivers first. Coming off a season in which he led the league with 1,708 receiving yards on 127 receptions, Chase was certainly going to get the raise he deserved. But he really got paid. Sometimes when players receive record-breaking contracts it's a product of natural progression, moving in line with the cap's rise. This was not that. Chase's $40.25 million APY extension is the highest in OverTheCap.com's historical wide receiver contract list even if we adjust for salary cap inflation.
Higgins did well from an APY standpoint, too, earning $28.75 million per year -- just a shade above Keenan Allen's and Amari Cooper's deals in 2020 when adjusting for cap inflation. It's perhaps a shade more than I'd pay Higgins, but it made sense to bring these two players back. The combination of quarterback Joe Burrow, Chase and Higgins resulted in the seventh-highest EPA per dropback last season even though the Bengals ranked last in pass block win rate and had a middling run game. Passing success is their recipe for winning.
Cincinnati's season cratered because of its defense despite the best efforts of Hendrickson, who led the league with 17.5 sacks. But Hendrickson is in a contract dispute and was granted permission to seek a trade.
Sure, one could argue that the Bengals shouldn't jump to pay a huge amount to a 30-year-old pass rusher. But they're contenders, and he's a critical piece of that puzzle. And Cincinnati easily has the cap space to do it! It has $33 million available this year and $56 million in 2026. The Bengals ought to be locking Hendrickson in to try to make a title run.
I don't know the exact circumstances, but if this is a cash-flow issue, I have little sympathy: Ownership's job is to try to field a winning team. In the hard-capped, revenue-sharing NFL, teams must be able to pay to the cap.
Cincinnati also fired Lou Anarumo and brought in Al Golden as defensive coordinator. A shake-up was necessary, and any defensive regression to the mean would be a positive.
Hendrickson was not the Bengals' only contract dispute. First-round edge Shemar Stewart has yet to practice and left minicamp due to a contract dispute based on language the team wants to use on his deal. The situation does not reflect well on Cincinnati.
The Bengals also re-signed defensive tackle B.J. Hill at $11 million per year and brought back tight end Mike Gesicki on an $8.5 million per year deal.
Washington Commanders: C
Biggest move: Trading for OT Laremy Tunsil
Move I liked: Releasing DT Jonathan Allen
Move I disliked: Signing DT Javon Kinlaw
Even if Washington overachieved in the playoffs, it still is in the enviable situation of having a franchise quarterback on a rookie deal, so it makes sense to push the chips in. Which is what it did.
Their biggest move was a bold trade of third- and seventh-round picks, a future second-round pick and a swap of fourth-round picks for Tunsil. The irony of the trade was that Houston badly needs offensive line help, and the Commanders didn't have to upgrade -- Brandon Coleman posted above average pass block and run block win rates as a rookie last season. But Tunsil is a high-end pass blocker despite leading all players in penalties last season.
At 30 years old, Tunsil could have plenty left. His current contract is a good value as it requires the Commanders to pay him $21.35 million in each of the next two seasons.
After also adding tackle Josh Conerly Jr. in the first round of the draft, the Commanders have options. Coleman, Conerly or Andrew Wylie -- last season's right tackle -- could all feasibly start. Guard could be an option for whomever doesn't start at tackle. Washington ranked ninth in pass block win rate last season, and should expect it to be better in 2025.
The trade for Deebo Samuel Sr. was a move that I was less a fan of the more I thought about it. The Commanders dealt a fifth-round pick and will pay $17.5 million for Samuel, who is 29 and coming off a rough 2024 in which he recorded 670 receiving yards and a career-low 37 overall score in ESPN's player-tracking based receiver scores.
0:41
Could Jayden Daniels push Joe Burrow out of the top five QBs in the NFL?
Chris Canty argues that if Jayden Daniels breaks into the top five QBs it will be at Joe Burrow's expense.
When grading the deal, I wrote that I was working under the assumption that Washington would add another wideout later in the offseason because Samuel would be a weakness as a No. 2 receiver. But there was no other major wide receiver addition.
Signing Kinlaw to a three-year deal averaging $15 million per year with $30 million fully guaranteed was a head-scratcher. Kinlaw has largely disappointed since being drafted in the first round in 2020; even with Kinlaw having a career season in 2024 this is a clear overpay. I was good with the Commanders cutting Allen, but paying Kinlaw this much to replace him doesn't make sense.
The Commanders made a slew of smaller deals with older veterans, including bringing back linebacker Bobby Wagner and bringing in Jonathan Jones and Deatrich Wise Jr. Wagner, who is back on a one-year deal for $9 million, is a future Hall of Famer, but I worry the Commanders are pushing their luck relying on him again at age 35.
Jacksonville Jaguars: C
Biggest move: Trading up to draft WR/CB Travis Hunter
Move I liked: Signing OL Patrick Mekari
Move I disliked: Signing WR Dyami Brown for one year, $10 million
Jacksonville bungled its regime change to start the offseason, firing Doug Pederson but originally retaining general manager Trent Baalke. The latter seemed to be an impediment for finding a new head coach, but once Jacksonville fired Baalke, it was able to land Liam Coen, who shined as the Buccaneers offensive coordinator in 2024 and is a coach who could potentially provide a schematic advantage.
New Jaguars general manager James Gladstone wasted little time making a big move, dealing picks Nos. 5, 36, 126 and a 2026 first-rounder for the No. 2 selection, along with picks Nos. 104 and 200. They used the pick on Hunter. The trade was an overpay, with Jacksonville giving up a quarterback-level premium to make the move.
Hunter is the most justifiable non-QB to prompt such a move because of his potential to be a high-end wide receiver and cornerback. But I would not have made this move, which demonstrated a level of overconfidence in the evaluation process that usually does not pay off. The Jaguars mitigated the value damage of the Hunter trade with a nice trade down with the Lions on Day 2.
The Jaguars made several other moves I did not love. Before drafting Hunter, they traded Christian Kirk to the Texans, then signed Brown to a one-year, $10 million deal. I'm very skeptical of Brown, who recorded 229 receiving yards in three playoff games last season but has amassed only 784 receiving yards total over his four-year career. There's a big chance that the playoffs were an outlier. Jacksonville later cut Gabe Davis.
The Jaguars also gave Jourdan Lewis a three-year deal that averages $10 million per year. Lewis is coming off a nice season, but that's quite costly for a 30-year-old slot cornerback who has an average 1.0 yards per coverage snap over the past four seasons, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The Jaguars also signed Robert Hainsey to replace retiring center Mitch Morse, and signed safety Eric Murray to replace Andre Cisco.
One move I was a big fan of was signing Patrick Mekari to a three-year deal that averages $12.5 million per year. Mekari is a versatile lineman with experience at center, guard and tackle and had a 95% pass block win rate at guard last season, which ranked fifth best at the position.
Pittsburgh Steelers: C
Biggest move: Signing QB Aaron Rodgers
Move I liked: Earning four projected compensatory picks
Move I disliked: Trading Minkah Fitzpatrick for Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith
Pittsburgh's offseason was dominated by its quarterback decisions. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields moved to New Jersey and Matthew Stafford ended up staying in Los Angeles, prompting the Steelers to turn to Rodgers, a 41-year-old future Hall of Famer coming off multiple seasons of poor play.
The most likely outcome of the Rodgers signing by far is disappointment and a wasted season. But the upside remains -- and there's more of it with Rodgers than with any of the Steelers' other realistic QB options, which is why the signing made some sense, especially at the extremely cheap cost Rodgers commanded. But Pittsburgh could have coupled the Rodgers signing with a stronger investment than sixth-rounder Will Howard in the draft, especially considering how far Shedeur Sanders fell.
The Steelers also decided to cut ties with George Pickens. Before trading him to Dallas, the Steelers secured his successor, DK Metcalf, in a trade with the Seahawks. The trade compensation they sent for Metcalf was close to what they got back for Pickens, but the move necessitated paying Metcalf (who is three years older than Pickens) $33 million per year. The team evidently felt Metcalf was a safer bet than Pickens (who also would have eventually required a contract), which isn't unreasonable. But the Steelers still lack receivers beyond Metcalf for Rodgers to throw to.
Pittsburgh sent shockwaves when it traded Fitzpatrick and a late-round pick swap to the Dolphins for Ramsey and Smith in late June. I did not think it was a great move. The Dolphins were struggling to find someone to take Ramsey's contract, yet Pittsburgh not only took on most of the money, but sent back a high-end safety with two years and no guaranteed money left on his contract.
Yes, the Steelers got an Arthur Smith favorite in Jonnu Smith, but I'd caution overrating that part. Smith is a good YAC player coming off a career-best season in which he recorded 884 receiving yards, but we shouldn't ignore the previous seven seasons of his career (including some with Smith) that were not on that level.
Ramsey is an interesting fit with the Steelers, who already have an outside corner. He figures to play nickel and mix in some at safety, perhaps. There's a chance it works. Ramsey is savvy, even if he is getting older, and it's not unreasonable to think he could be key to making the secondary click.
If the Steelers' defense breaks right, it has a chance to be exceptional (with a particularly elite pass rush). Pittsburgh brought in Darius Slay on a one-year, $10 million deal to play opposite Joey Porter Jr. Slay is no longer an elite corner, but the Steelers didn't have to pay him like one, either.
Pittsburgh's entire offseason has resulted in an old team trying to take one last swing. It probably won't work, and next year will be time for a true rebuild. If so, one piece of good news: the Steelers' offseason resulted in projected compensatory picks in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth rounds, per OverTheCap.com.
Carolina Panthers: C
Biggest move: Signing CB Jaycee Horn to an extension
Move I liked: Signing RB Rico Dowdle
Move I disliked: Signing DT Tershawn Wharton
The Panthers' biggest spending came hours before the free agency negotiating window opened, when they agreed to terms with Horn to a four-year extension averaging $25 million per year with $46.7 million fully guaranteed, per OverTheCap.com.
It was a great deal for Horn. He has averaged 0.9 yards per coverage snap --better than the 1.1 average for an outside corner -- over his career and 0.8 last season. His 14% career target rate is also better than average. But he also has played in only 37 games in four seasons.
He might be an ideal player to sign for the long term. But $25 million per year? That's currently second (behind only Derek Stingley Jr.) in the NFL, and even if we adjust past contracts for salary cap inflation, Horn is still right near the top. I don't think it was necessary to pay him this much and I'm not the only one who thinks so -- my colleague Dan Graziano recently highlighted Horn's contract as a "player-friendly deal."
It wasn't Carolina's only overpay. I also thought it overspent on Wharton, handing him a three-year deal worth $15 million per year with a little more than $30 million fully guaranteed. Wharton recorded 8.5 sacks for the Chiefs between the regular season and playoffs last season, but his below average 7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle makes me awfully wary about that sack production continuing -- especially since he won't have Chris Jones drawing double-teams and causing disruption. There are also questions about Wharton's run-stopping ability. I don't think his contract was worth the cost.
I'm not down on all of the Panthers' moves. Signing former Raiders safety Tre'Von Moehrig on a $17 million per year deal (with $34.5 million fully guaranteed) was in line with the top of the safety market. Moehrig was well-regarded heading into free agency after moving closer to the line of scrimmage last season. And Carolina had to find a way to boost a defense that finished last in defensive EPA in 2024.
The Panthers got a bargain in signing Dowdle to a one-year deal for $2.75 million. It's surprising that Dowdle got so little considering he recorded 61 rush yards over expectation last season. I also feel he is better than the veterans Dallas brought in to replace him (Miles Sanders and Javonte Williams).
The Panthers drafted wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan with the No. 8 pick, hoping he'll fill a need and help quarterback Bryce Young's development.
Dallas Cowboys: C
Biggest move: Trading for WR George Pickens
Move I liked: Drafting Edge Donovan Ezeiruaku in Round 2
Move I disliked: Letting RB Rico Dowdle walk in exchange for Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders
Eight days after the Cowboys' final game of 2024, they announced that head coach Mike McCarthy, whose contract had expired, would not be back. Dallas underwent an abridged search, interviewing only four candidates before hiring offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, who hadn't been considered a major contender in the 2025 head coach market.
True to typical form, the Cowboys didn't make any major free agent splashes. Their big move came when they acquired Pickens and a 2027 sixth-round pick from the Steelers in exchange for a 2026 third-round pick and a 2027 fifth-round pick.
On paper, it's a perfect move. Pickens not only fills a major need (a second wide receiver) but fits perfectly with CeeDee Lamb. Pickens is an outside, downfield threat who has been superb in contest-catch situations, which pairs nicely with Lamb, who can play both inside and out. What's scarier is that Steelers coach Mike Tomlin -- who has a history of being able to manage all sorts of personalities -- was evidently done with Pickens.
This could be a reasonable one-year play for the Cowboys (which could result in a compensatory pick if Pickens walks in free agency next year), but I would be wary of signing him to a long-term deal. In the meantime, Pickens is a big add for the 2025 Cowboys.
Dallas' big-money move was re-signing defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, who agreed to a four-year deal averaging $20 million per year with $39 million fully guaranteed, per OverTheCap.com. That's not unreasonable in a hot defensive tackle market. Odighizuwa ranked fourth in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle in 2023, though he dropped to 11th in 2024.
The Cowboys drafted guard Tyler Booker at No. 12 -- poor positional value for that spot. There's no way to know, but I hope the Cowboys exhausted trade-down options before settling for Booker, who was projected to go later. I was a big fan of Ezeiruaku in the second round at No. 44. He was considered a fringe first-round pick entering the draft and fared well in my sack forecast for prospects.
Dallas' running back situation is uninspiring. Dowdle left for Carolina for under $3 million despite a very good 2024 season. In his stead, the Cowboys brought in Williams (who had minus-84 rush yards over expectation in 2024, per NFL Next Gen Stats) and Sanders (minus-44). Dallas also drafted Jaydon Blue in Round 5.
The Cowboys also made an ill-advised trade for linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. The trade was merely a sixth- and seventh-round pick swap, but it involves the Cowboys picking up a $7.5 million cash bill in 2025 (unless they get him to agree to a pay cut -- tough to do after a trade) despite Murray coming off a poor season in which he ranked fifth worst in run stop win rate among off-ball linebackers with at least 300 snaps played.
Atlanta Falcons: C-
Biggest move: Trading up to draft Edge James Pearce Jr.
Move I liked: Letting C Drew Dalman walk and making C Ryan Neuzil the starter
Move I disliked: Trading up to select Pearce
Atlanta's biggest move came during the first night of the draft -- and it was a shocker. After making a perfectly fine selection of Jalon Walker at No. 15, the Falcons inexplicably dealt picks Nos. 46, 242 and a future first-round pick for Nos. 26 and 101.
The Falcons' target? Pearce, another pass rusher. There's nothing wrong with taking two edge rushers to fill a need. But there is everything wrong with dealing a future first to move up into the back end of the first round for a non-quarterback. Pearce was also off multiple teams' draft boards due to maturity concerns, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported.
The value was bad, but it's potentially disastrous if the Falcons end up picking early in next year's draft. That is fully within the range of outcomes -- quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is a mostly unknown quantity and FPI considers Atlanta the 26th-best team in the league entering this season. This was an unforced error and a bad one.
The Falcons are moving forward with Penix at quarterback but opted to keep Kirk Cousins on the roster past the fifth day of the league year, which triggered a full guarantee for his $10 million 2026 roster bonus. It might have created an awkward situation, but it was the right call. All the other money owed Cousins is a sunk cost, so the $10 million is what matters. If Atlanta decides to trade Cousins before or during the season, I think they'll get a little more than $10 million of value. If not, he's worth more than $10 million as a high-end backup.
Atlanta secured left tackle Jake Matthews for two more years with an extension for $22.5 million per year that guarantees Matthews' salary through 2026 and keeps him under team control through 2028. Matthews' win rates have never been as good as his reputation, but he's widely considered a good tackle, and this seems like a reasonable move to maintain stability at a key position.
The Falcons' biggest free agent addition was another edge rusher, Leonard Floyd, on a one-year, $10 million deal. It's a move that didn't look great at the time and looks worse now after the first-round double-dip. Floyd, who will turn 33 in September, is coming off a season in which his pass rush win rate was 13% -- below average for the position.
The Falcons released defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, which I endorse. They would have had to pay Jarrett $16.25 million in cash in 2025 to keep him, per OverTheCap.com, and he wasn't worth that after declining for years.
The Falcons also let Dalman walk in free agency, opting to stick with Neuzil. Neuzil started eight games while Dalman was injured last season and ranked 12th and ninth in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively. Staying with Neuzil -- who was a restricted free agent and signed a two-year, $9.5 million deal -- instead of Dalman is a good move.
New Orleans Saints: D
Biggest move: Lucking into QB Derek Carr's retirement
Move I liked: Drafting QB Tyler Shough at No. 40
Move I disliked: Trying to pay Carr before he retired
The Saints' offseason was odd. It started with the retention of general manager Mickey Loomis and the hiring of coach Kellen Moore, then a decision to keep Carr. Let's evaluate that choice in the moment.
At the time, Carr had a fully guaranteed $10 million roster bonus and a non-guaranteed $30 million in salary that became guaranteed if he remained on the roster in March, per OverTheCap.com. Even if the $10 million was a sunk cost (it wasn't quite), was Carr worth $30 million to the Saints in 2025? He shouldn't have been. This is a team in a dire cap situation and in need of a rebuild: saving every penny is what should have mattered. Keeping Carr was a play to pay for mediocrity.
Plus, the $10 million roster bonus was subject to offsets, so if Carr had been released and signed to another team for, say, $15 million, then New Orleans would have been off the hook, which was a possible scenario.
Of course, he ended up retiring because of a shoulder injury. In doing so, he bailed the Saints out of the $30 million they put themselves on the hook for. So the Saints got the result they needed but through sheer luck -- their process was flawed. In the grade above, I'm judging them by the decision they tried to make -- the result was better given the surprise retirement.
With Carr retired, second-round pick Shough suddenly became an immediate contender to start. Shough joins a room that includes Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, and gives New Orleans hope for a chance at a long-term quarterback solution. That's what the Saints -- who rank last in ESPN's preseason FPI rankings -- ought to be spending their resources on, players who can help them for years to come.
Many of their moves did not fit that mold. The Saints signed edge rusher Chase Young to a $17 million per year deal that I fear was partially made to avoid a dead cap bill if Young wasn't on the team. I consider myself to be a Young defender (he has posted an above-average 19% pass rush win rate twice in the past four seasons), but that's a hearty amount of money for a bad team with no money to pay a decent pass rusher.
Safety Justin Reid is sort of a similar story, though signing Reid to a $10.5 million per year deal is totally fine in a vacuum -- probably even good. But the Saints aren't in a vacuum. Paying tight end Juwan Johnson more than $10 million per year and more than $21 million fully guaranteed feels like too much.
Before drafting Shough, the Saints selected tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. at No. 9. He allows New Orleans to move Trevor Penning inside. And while young tackles are usually below-average players (even first-rounders), having Banks and Taliese Fuaga at tackle gives the Saints a chance to put together a nice line in time. One that could help develop a young quarterback.