Nifty faces stiff resistance as US visa concerns weigh

Nifty logged its third straight week of gains, breaking out of a 4-month range and closing above key swing levels, but analysts caution the index now faces stiff resistance at 25,500–25,670. While support at 25,000–25,200 remains firm, near-term sentiment could be tested by developments around US visa costs.

SAMEET CHAVAN
HEAD RESEARCH – TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES, ANGEL ONE

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty surpassed the psychological level of 25,000, confirming a ‘Double Bottom’ formation on daily charts. Although risks remain, certain technical indicators are providing encouraging signals. Price-wise, we see a clear ‘Higher High, Higher Low’ formation, which is bullish. The RSI-smoothed oscillator on the daily timeframe has crossed 70 and is trending northwards, which generally adds momentum to the rally. We remain optimistic and expect Nifty to soon challenge the important swing highs of 25,548 and 25,670. On the downside, 25,250 followed by 25,000 should be treated as strong support zones.

Trading strategies for the week:
Over the weekend, the US President made announcements regarding H-1B visas, which could dampen sentiment across the IT space. In case of any knee-jerk reaction, the support levels mentioned above could provide a cushion in the week ahead. Traders are advised not to get carried away and instead use declines to add long positions. Samman Capital: Appears to have emerged from a prolonged consolidation, forming a Bullish Flag breakout with strong volumes. Buy on declines toward Rs 140 for a target of Rs 152, with a stop loss at Rs 133 Piramal Pharma: Confirmed a breakout on Friday after closing convincingly above the key resistance at 205. We recommend buying for a target of Rs 224, with a strict stop loss at Rs 196.

DHUPESH DHAMEJA
DERIVATIVES RESEARCH ANALYST, SAMCO SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?

The Nifty closed marginally below the previous day’s low, signaling ongoing profit-taking and the possibility of sideways consolidation. However, corrective dips are likely to attract fresh accumulation. Call writers have been more aggressive, with fresh open interest at 25,500 strike establishing this level as a strong resistance, while heavy put contracts at 25,200– 25,100 reaffirm support. The simultaneous buildup of both calls and puts near at-the-money strikes suggests indecision, pointing toward a nearterm range-bound market. Despite intermittent profit booking, optimism persists as FPIs have covered a significant portion of their shorts over the past three weeks, while also adding marginal long positions.

Trading strategy for the week: As long as Nifty holds above 25,100–25,200 and Nifty Bank sustains 55,000–54,800, buyers are likely to remain active. A decisive breakout above 25,500 in Nifty and 56,000 in Nifty Bank will be crucial for further upside. Until then, range-trading strategies are favored. Sectoral rotation is evident. Banks and financials, insurance, pharma, and electronic & consumer durables show resilience and could offer near-term opportunities. Setups look encouraging in Union Bank of India, Housing and Urban Development Corporation, New India Assurance, Mankind Pharma, and Amber Enterprises India.

SOMIL MEHTA
HEAD OF ALTERNATE RESEARCH, MIRAE ASSET SHAREKHAN

Where is Nifty headed?
After After moving sideways for nearly four months between 24,500 and 25,000, Nifty has finally broken out of the range. The next hurdle to watch is 25,670, the previous swing high. On the weekly chart, Nifty has posted three consecutive positive closings, each one higher than the last, which shows market strength. In the medium term, the outlook remains positive. Strong support lies near 24,365–24,366, which coincides with the 200- day and 40-week moving averages. As long as Nifty remains above these levels, the uptrend should continue. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent correction (wave 4) is complete, and Nifty has started its next upward leg (wave 5). This was confirmed by the strong quarterly close in June 2025. Over the medium to long term, Nifty could move toward 28,000 and beyond.

Trading strategies for the week:
Sector rotation is in play. While some sectors face short-term pressure, this is creating opportunities for medium- to long-term investors. It is a good time to accumulate quality large-cap stocks for stability, along with select mid-cap value stocks for growth. Sectors to focus on: Defence, pharmaceuticals, capital goods, and automobiles. Large-cap ideas for portfolio stability include: Larsen & Toubro, State Bank of India, Bajaj Auto, Dabur, Bharti Airtel, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, and ICICI Bank.