There’s a 68% chance that stocks will rise by year-end. Do you feel lucky?

Mark Hulbert

U.S. stocks are likely to be higher on Dec. 31 — and it has nothing to do with politics or the economy

Last Updated: July 2, 2025 at 4:11 p.m. ET
First Published: July 2, 2025 at 12:31 p.m. ET

There’s a 2-out-of-3 chance that the U.S. stock market will be higher on Dec. 31 than it is today. That’s true for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite.

You may decide that a 1-out-of-3 chance of losing money is too high, and therefore choose to stay out of stocks. But you’re kidding yourself if you think the odds will ever be any better. The probability of the market rising over any six-month period is remarkably impervious to prevailing market conditions.