Why your Social Security check could shrink by nearly 20% — and more if jobs are scarce

Econofact

America’s retirement trust fund is expected to run dry by 2034. A U.S. economic downturn would only make a bad situation worse.

Last Updated: June 29, 2025 at 3:59 p.m. ET
First Published: June 26, 2025 at 7:50 a.m. ET

Social Security is hugely important to a large share of Americans. Almost 69 million Americans will receive monthly Social Security benefits in 2025, totaling about $1.6 trillion in benefits paid during the year.

But Social Security will need some kind of reform within the next decade in order for America’s retirees to keep counting on it. Given its funding structure, if Social Security continues to roll forward in its current trajectory, the program will be able to cover just 81% of promised benefits starting in 2034, according to the latest estimates of the Social Security Trust Fund report.