With Marathon getting delayed, we need to have a talk about extraction shooters

Marathon, Bungie's upcoming extraction shooter, has been delayed indefinitely, leaving one less PlayStation exclusive to look forward to in 2025. Announced in a blog post, Bungie delayed the game to continue developing it, improving the survival aspects and improving the intelligence of the AIs. While the delay of Marathon can be blamed on PlayStation's failing live-service push or Bungie's continued controversies, including a recent issue of Bungie using stolen artwork in Marathon (via PCGamer), part of the blame should be placed on the genre. Extraction shooters have become the latest cash cow, or at least perceived cash cow, for video game companies, but the current successful games in the genre suggest that extraction shooters won't be the next mainstream hit the way battle royales were before that.

The core gameplay loop sounds impossible to sell to a casual audience

An Extraction Shooter is a multiplayer FPS game that typically features PvPvE combat. You enter a large play space, which is occupied by other players and NPC characters. Your goal is to find loot and resources, and escape with that loot, so you can secure it to use in future runs. If you die, you lose whatever you were carrying, creating a real sense of risk and danger while you are playing. The most popular game in the genre, and one of the few major successes in it, is Escape From Tarkov, a hardcore tactical extraction shooter. Escape From Tarkov isn't on Steam, so it's difficult to get accurate player numbers, but another popular extraction shooter, Hunt Showdown: 1896, is and sits around number 70 in the top 100 most played. While the popularity of the genre is hard to track, there is one aspect that is clearly important, which is the hardcore nature of the loop. Fans of the genre like the risk and reward of potentially losing everything during a run, but that might hold back a more casual audience.

Can the gameplay loop be made for casuals?

Fortnite made a casual-friendly Battle Royale

The most recent example of a more tactical and hardcore genre being turned into a casual-friendly one is Fortnite taking the battle royale formula from PUBG, and making it more casual friendly. But, when it comes to an example like that, and others, like Marvel Rivals revitalizing the hero shooter genre after a few failed attempts by other games to take the crown from Overwatch 2. But, Fortnite and Marvel Rivals aren't hardcore games in the same way that any extraction shooter has to be. In both of those games, the gameplay progression is contained into individual matches, while the external progression is tied to battle passes. For an extraction shooter, in-game progression isn't contained into individual matches, it's instead carried from match to match. Basically, if you drop into your first match of a battle royale and die immediately, it might not be fun, but there isn't a penalty. In an extraction shooter, you always lose gear when you die, making those early matches far more frustrating, especially for casual players. The more tactical elements of PUBG were lessened or removed when taken by Fortnite, but the main gameplay loop remains the same, something that won't work for extraction shooters.

PlayStation doesn't seem interested in giving Marathon time to build

Another aspect of extraction shooters is that it takes time for them to hit their stride, both in terms of popularity and quality. Escape From Tarkov came out in 2017, but became a massive hit in late 2021, when it blew up on Twitch (via esports.net) and Hunt Showdown spent a full year in early access. Unlike something like Marvel Rivals, where the gameplay loop can be understood within a few matches, and more depth can be found later, extraction shooters require much more investment from players. You need to know what the gameplay loop is, where you need to go to get loot, what loot matters, and so much more. On top of that, a loss in Marvel Rivals might not feel great, but there aren't negative consequences outside of a rank going down. In an extraction shooter, death or a bad round not only means no progress is made, but some of it is lost. You need people willing to go through that and continue playing, which is tough, which is why an early access period to build the game around players is important. PlayStation, the company that pulled Concord from shelves within a week of release and shutdown the studio, does not seem equipped to handle a rocky launch and push forward.

Bungie has a track record of success

Although a decade of Destiny 2 may have left the company is in a worse spot

Bungie does have a track record of both improving its games over time and making excellent first-person shooters that bring in a large audience. Destiny and Destiny 2 are basically MMOs, demanding daily logins and dedication to them, something that is both extremely popular with casual audiences but also off-putting to many gamers. Bungie also successfully recovered both games from bad launches, and delivered multiple great expansions. If a developer were to successfully make an extraction shooter that appeals to a casual audience, which is what Marathon is trying to do, Bungie seems like the best possible candidate, or at least it was.

Bungie has been in rough shape since joining PlayStation

Layoffs and controversies have been plentiful in recent years

Bungie has been in rough shape since getting bought by PlayStation. A toxic workplace culture (via IGN) and several rounds of layoffs has left Bungie a shell of the company that delivered both Destiny games. That's not to say Bungie hasn't done great work, Destiny 2: The Final Shape got great reviews so it's not impossible for it to deliver. But considering that the extraction shooter genre seems impossible to crack for a casual audience, it's going to require a near perfect Marathon to make that work, which just seems unlikely. Combining that with the short leash that PlayStation likely has on Bungie means that it either succeeds out of the gate, or shuts off servers within 12 months, and unfortunately, my money is on the latter.