Doom: The Dark Ages proves what we all knew: Day-one Game Pass cannibalizes sales

Whenever a new Doom game is released, there's going to be a lot of people who show up to play it. The latest entry in the series from Bethesda, Doom: The Dark Ages, garnered a positive reception from many who were eagerly awaiting its release. But not everybody showed up to a retail store or hopped onto the Xbox Live marketplace to grab their copy of the game. With the latest Doom game being available on Day 1 through Xbox game Pass, tons of people downloaded it as soon as the game went live for everyone. Unfortunately, this may have had some unintended consequences on the release of Doom: The Dark Ages that many have been saying about the subscription service for some time.

An ongoing discussion about Microsoft's premium gaming service has implied that games available upon their release will end up selling fewer units than if they were on sale through normal means. Xbox Game Pass is a great deal for anyone looking to have options for new and old games to play, but it might not be too good for newer releases that need to sell a higher number of units. After all, how can any studio make money when their game is available to download off the service without needing to pay full price? With Doom: The Dark Ages coming out recently, many are pointing to this being a definitive example of how Xbox Game Pass could cannibalize game sales.

Mostly through Game Pass

The numbers aren't that big

Following the release of Doom: The Dark Ages, Bethesda announced that the game passed more than 3 million players that were actively playing the game. However, reports on sales numbers were being shared around by multiple outlets that told a different story. Many were sourcing a report from Alinea Analytics (shared through LinkedIn) that showed how Doom: The Dark Ages had actually sold less than 1 million copies, and that the number being boasted about by Bethesda was misleading. The number of units for PlayStation 5, Xbox Series consoles, and Steam sales were shown on a graph in comparison to the number of people who downloaded Doom: The Dark Ages through Game Pass.

Most were quick to point out that this was due to the game being available on Day 1 through Xbox Game Pass, as opposed to later on post-release. Everyone could simply download the game after paying for the service, rather than spend money paying full price on launch day. Other games have done similar things in the past, but few of them had the anticipation and general reception of a brand-new Bethesda release. This doesn't mean people were not interested in playing Doom: The Dark Ages, but rather took advantage of their options for being able to do so. And unfortunately, that leads to a problem that most studios are going to have to grapple with at some point.

Players don't equal sales

Two different milestones

The post from Bethesda paints a very different kind of picture from the reality of how the release of Doom: The Dark Ages is going. Having more than 3 million players actively playing the game is great to see, but it's not the number that matters when it comes to sales. The wording is very important whenever a studio shares a milestone publicly. At the same time, the data from Alinea Analytics shows that most of those players aren't buying the game through normal means. Players are always going to find the best deals or better options that save them money while enabling them to get the best experience possible. This is why Xbox Game Pass is such a great deal to them.

But that also takes away from traditional sales, and ends up being a distribution powerhouse move, rather than a big seller of games. New releases that are on Xbox Game Pass are not being sold but offered, which means that the studio doesn't get a sale for each person that plays their game through the service. Tallying up all the numbers from the graph shown by Alinea Analytics means that actual sales for Doom: The Dark Ages are around the range of .80M in total. That number is far less than the one that Bethesda was quick to share with everyone, and means something very different from what one might believe at first glance. A new Doom game may not have sold very well at all.

Balancing things out

Finding a solution to this

If the numbers are accurate among all the reports about Xbox Game Pass, is there a better solution to making things even on all sides? Not exactly, especially if the priority is to get more active users for Game Pass reaching higher numbers. This means offering more big game titles to entice players to subscribe to the service, which inevitably will cut into the sales of those new games. This means that something like Doom: The Dark Ages will take longer to break even with its revenue following its initial release.

One way to try and balance this out is to have games stay off of Xbox Game Pass for an unannounced period of time. This can allow those interested in the game to pick it up on release if they want to, giving some breathing room for the games to make money before they get put onto Microsoft's service. But again, this comes down to what is the main priority for Xbox as a whole: more sales or more subscribers? Because one does not equal the other, and they mean two totally different outcomes for new games that come out on Xbox platforms.

Getting onto Game Pass isn't bad

For players, Xbox Game Pass isn't a bad service, nor is it a major problem for the industry in concept. The truth is that the service is a great deal for those who want to engage with Xbox games frequently, and is arguably the best kind of deal they can get from any of the major game companies. But the responsibility for what kind of impact Xbox Game Pass will have on future titles falls on its handling by Microsoft themselves. Not every studio is going to be able to withstand a period of time when their games don't make money from sales, regardless of the amount of attention they receive through Xbox Game Pass. At some point, money needs to be paid and sales need to be made. How that works out and makes sense in the long run for new games is anybody's guess at this point, only Microsoft will know for sure.