Nintendo's Switch 2 launch was nearly perfect, yet it mirrors the 3DS launch a little too closely

The Nintendo Switch 2 has finally launched and is a massive hit. The Switch 2 is the fastest-selling Nintendo console of all time, and the upgraded performance over its predecessor has impressed critics. That said, the Switch 2 launch also shares some similarities with another Nintendo console, the 3DS. The Nintendo 3DS sold incredibly well out of the gate (via GamingBolt) but tapered off later, partially due to a lackluster launch year in terms of both first and third-party support. While the Nintendo Switch 2 launch is in much better shape, thanks to a slightly better launch day line-up, with more heavy hitters set to release soon after launch, it might be more similar than you expected.

Lackluster launch day line-up

Mario Kart World will sell well, but it doesn't have the same level of excitement as previous launch titles

The launch day and the following month or so of the Nintendo Switch 2 is certainly better than the 3DS launch day line-up, but it's closer than you would hope after the success of the Nintendo Switch. The 3DS launch day line-up (via TechRaptor) featured a handful of Nintendo and third-party games, none of which were particularly exciting. The best you had available were Nintendogs + Cats, Pilotwings Resort, and Steel Diver. That's a drastically worse line-up compared to the Nintendo Switch 2, which features Mario Kart World and Cyberpunk 2077, both games significantly better than the 3DS games.

But the feeling is similar. The Switch 2 launch line-up doesn't have a killer game that everyone needs to play. Mario Kart World will sell tens of millions of copies, but it doesn't have the same feeling as playing The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild on Switch launch. The 3DS didn't start to get the big single-player Nintendo franchises until months after launch, and the Switch 2 appears to be in the same boat.

The 3DS sold hot out the gate but slowed down later

There will almost always be people willing to preorder and buy at launch, it's convincing everyone else that's tough

The Nintendo 3DS and Switch 2 both sold hot at launch, but the 3DS later floundered for a while, for several reasons. The rough launch price of $250 (via ZeldaDeungeon) meant that a console that was popular with children in the previous version was a bit too expensive. That price was later cut to help move consoles, which eventually happened once Mario 3D World and other big Nintendo games finally came to the console. The Nintendo Switch 2 has a similar price jump compared to the previous console, moving from $300 at launch for the Switch to $450 at launch for the Switch 2. It's far less likely that Switch 2 will get a price cut due to other factors in the world, like large and fluctuating tariffs in the United States.

The original Switch also wasn't the massive success it became right away, with a large bump coming in the Summer of 2020. The combination of Animal Crossing: New Horizons and a global pandemic drastically increased the number of Switch console sales, a momentum that was carried for several years by excellent Nintendo games. The Switch 2 could see a similar slowdown in sales after launch, especially with a less certain year of Nintendo releases ahead.

We have to wait for the big Nintendo franchises

No true Zelda or Mario for launch

Similar to the Nintendo 3DS, in terms of first-party Nintendo games, the line-up isn't as certain as you would hope for the Switch 2. The first year of the Switch had Mario Odyssey and The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, and while nobody knew how great those games truly were until they were released, they are from the heavy-hitter franchises. Mario Kart World moves copies, but the rest of the announced games leave a little uncertainty about what exactly the big games will be.

Donkey Kong Bananza looks like it could fill that void, but it's basically a new franchise from what we have seen. Kirby Air Riders is a sequel to a cult classic, but one that wasn't well-received at the time and hasn't seen an entry in 20 years. The best example of a big game is Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, but it hasn't been given an exact date just yet, and the long wait since it was originally announced in 2017 has made it difficult to feel excited just yet.

Mario Kart World, old games, and no bad features mean the Switch 2 has a better chance

The Switch 2 is in much better shape compared to the 3DS

The Nintendo Switch 2, while similar to the launch of the 3DS, is positioned much better than that comparison might sound. Mario Kart World drives circles around Pilotwings Resort and Nintendogs + Cats, and while a bit of an unknown, Donkey Kong Bananza is right around the corner. On day one, there are also all the paid and free Switch 2 upgrades, making games like Pokémon Scarlet and Violet and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom run significantly better than those games did on the original hardware. Those small upgrades can help stave off the feeling that there isn't anything to play, even if a large amount of the launch line-up are games you may have already played. This is significantly different from the 3DS, which didn't provide that performance boost and had the divisive 3D function, which was largely unimpressive. Switch 2 has new features in Game Chat and Mouse Controls, but these are more add-ons to games and do not have a visual style for every release.

The Switch 2 could still suffer without the heavy Nintendo hitters

Can Donkey Kong and Metroid fill the Mario and Zelda slots?

While the situation isn't anywhere as dire as the Nintendo 3DS at launch, the Switch 2 may still see a dip in popularity and success after the initial launch hype. Most of the Nintendo games in the first year are second-tier Nintendo titles, like Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity or potentially big Nintendo games, but I have enough questions around them, it's hard to know until I get my hands on them, like Donkey Kong Bananza, Kirby Air Riders, and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond. Pokémon Legends Z-A is another game to call out. It is popular because it's Pokémon, but it was also a bit of an unknown prior to launch. It's entirely possible any concern about these titles is unnecessary, as they could easily be good enough to fill those slots. Still, if all of these games are pretty good, but not life-changing, Nintendo might be feeling the pressure by the end of 2025.